If you're weary of the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) you should be. NAFTA turned out to do exactly what Chomsky said it would. Neo-Liberalization was the answer to a strong labor community that enjoyed record standards of living. Corporate America waged an all out war in the '70s to reduce labor's influence.
Conservatives squawking about border issues and refugees should take a close look at the Mexican agriculture sector that was devastated after the passage of NAFTA. Farmers who were able to support themselves before NAFTA weren't able to afterward. When a foreign government can undersell domestic farmers - you're left with few alternatives.
If your skeptical of the TPP, you have a good reason to be so. We've seen this song and dance before with NAFTA. Could we at least let our senators read the bill? Corporations got to look it over.
We're in a dogfight in 2016. There's little doubt about it. While Obama pulled a historic upset in 2012 only 2 Presidents in the 20th century pulled off 3 party victories in a row. FDR and Reagan.
O'Reilly was very right in the clip below. The demographics change in the country is nothing short of an earthquake.
"Republicans will be trying to win with a base of supporters that is
roughly 90% white in an increasingly diverse country, having failed so
far to develop a strategy to attract the growing minority populations
who rejected them in 2008 and 2012. Who wins will almost certainly depend on which proves more powerful — the hunger for change or the inexorable demographic wave.
Or
to put it another way, the 2016 election will test whether the Obama
coalition of minorities and white liberals can hold together, turn out
and defeat the aging but still powerful coalition of social and economic
conservatives and foreign policy hawks assembled by Ronald Reagan 35
years ago.
The best case for Republicans is that "the American
public seldom has the stomach for a third term, and President Obama
hasn't been the kind of leader who generates a third term," said
political scientist Julia R. Azari of Marquette University in Wisconsin.
The
two presidents in the modern era whose parties did win three or more
elections, Reagan and Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt, both transformed
American politics by embodying — and helping bring about — a change in
what people believed government should do."
It's all going to come down to turnout. Can Clinton energize Obama's base? Can she get the minorities and white liberals to turnout like they did in 2012?
"According to CNN exit polls, 93% of African-Americans, 71% of Hispanics and 73% of Asians supported Obama over Romney."
"But among whites, Obama is currently doing much
worse than he did in 2008. At this stage four years ago, Obama trailed
Republican John McCain by eight percentage points among white voters.
Even in victory, Obama ended up losing white voters by 12 percentage
points.
Obama’s current 21-percent-deficit -- he trails Romney 59
to 38 percent -- would be far harder to overcome, as this year may
break a string of increasingly non-white electorates. In 2008, whites
made up a record-low 74 percent of all voters; in the latest Post-ABC
poll, they made up a similar 75 percent of likely 2012 voters.
In
2004, John Kerry lost white voters to George W. Bush by a similarly
wide margin, 58 to 41 percent -- and he also lost the election.
Compared with four years ago, white voter support for Obama is now
lower among white men and white independents. (See the latest Post-ABC
tracking poll on The Fix at 5 p.m. every day through Nov. 5.)
The
clearest loss for the president is among white men. In 2008, Obama lost
white men by 16 points, according to the exit poll. This year, Obama
trails Romney double that margin -- 33 points -- larger than any deficit
for a Democratic candidate since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide win
over Walter Mondale.
After splitting their votes 47 percent for Obama and 49 percent for
McCain in 2008, whites who identify as political independents now favor
Romney over Obama, 59 to 38 percent. Nearly half of all of those who
supported Obama in 2008 but Romney in 2012 are white independents.
(Overall, whites make up more than 90 percent of “switchers.”)
A
key element of Romney’s advantage among all whites is that by 55 to 39
percent, more white voters say he, not Obama understands the economic
problems people in this country are having. Among whites without college
degrees, Romney is up 58 to 35 percent on this score, expanding what
was a narrow gap just a few weeks ago. This advantage comes even as 48
percent of white voters say Romney, as president, would do more to favor
the wealthy; 37 percent say he would do more to for the middle class."
"Republicans stand a slim chance of winning the presidency in
2016—unless they nominate a transformational candidate who can
dramatically broaden the GOP’s appeal. That assertion may seem
incongruous in light of stunning Republican triumphs in the past two
midterm elections. But success in 2014 no more indicates the outcome of
the 2016 presidential election than victory in 2010 foretold the
presidential winner in 2012.
The continuing problem for the
Republican Party is the country’s changing demographics. GOP
congressional candidates won 60% of white voters in 2010 and 2014,
producing landslide victories. The calculation works differently in
presidential elections, however, when turnout is higher, particularly
among minorities. In 2012, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney
won 59% of white voters, the highest percentage of any Republican
challenging an incumbent president in the history of exit polling. He
won every significant white subgroup—men and women; young and old;
Protestants and Catholics—often by overwhelming margins. Yet Mr. Romney
still lost the election by five million votes.
Barack Obama
won because he achieved breathtaking majorities among every other
racial group. The president won 93% of African-Americans and more than
70% of Hispanics and Asians. As a result, the first African-American
president won re-election with only four out of 10 white voters."
The best thing the Dems can hope for is the GOP candidates keep running to the far right on immigration, social issues and safety nets. The economy just might be the wildcard in 2016.
